Evaluating Observed versus Predicted Fire Behavior in Moody Natural Area, Winter 2009
Tyson Atkinson, who recently graduated with a bachelor’s degree in Resource Conservation and minors in Wildlife Biology and Wildland Restoration, completed the research: Evaluating Observed versus Predicted Fire Behavior in Moody Natural Area, Winter 2009.
During the wintersession in January, 2009, eight students and three faculty members from the College of Forestry and Conservation’s National Center for Landscape Fire Analysis went to The Nature Conservancy’s Moody Forest Natural Area near Baxley, Georgia. The students gained experience applying fire in Southeastern ecosystems and helped The Nature Conservancy meet longleaf pine restoration objectives. The group successfully conducted prescribed burns on eight management units during eight of the 16 days of their trip, burning over 1,250 acres in a range of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) restoration phases. The students documented their experiences using weather and fuel observations, photos, and log books.
Tyson reviewed four of the eight units burned; these four units were used for another research project conducted by a CFC graduate student and CFC faculty. In each of the units, fire weather observations (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed/direction, and fuel moisture) were recorded by the CFC student firefighters. In select units, students took infrared pictures and videos of the flaming front close to the weather documentation sites. From these data, Tyson looked back at TNC prescriptions and assessed whether each burn was in or out of optimal burning conditions (based on its prescriptions). In addition, he input data from the field into the fire behavior modeling program BehavePlus 4.0 and compared observed fire behavior to the model output.
Tyson concluded that a fire modeling program like BehavePlus would help fire managers to model and predict fire behavior given weather and fuel types. This would help managers to make good decisions about when and where to burn in order to best meet prescribed burning goals. Tyson’s research also concluded that TNC’s prescribed burns are most effective when conducted within the prescription’s criteria for days-since-rain, relative humidity, and other factors.